MH370

Questions and claims

• C-1 — Manual control likely ≠ named-pilot intent established(question / dispute)
• C-2 — Home simulator evidence exists ≠ MH370 route rehearsal established(question / dispute)
• C-3 — Southern Indian Ocean strongly inferred ≠ exact crash site known(question / dispute)
• C-4 — Search-area changes are model updates, not necessarily factual contradiction(question / dispute)
• C-5 — High-confidence search exclusion ≠ positive location elsewhere(question / dispute)
• C-6 — BFO/end-of-flight evidence reduces controlled-ditching scenarios ≠ categorical proof(question / dispute)
• C-7 — Debris identification has graded confidence(question / dispute)
• C-8 — Early drift-model error has bounded consequences(question / dispute)
• C-9 — "Prospective areas exhausted based on analysis to date" vs later renewed searches(question / dispute)
• C-10 — Cause unknown ≠ evidence absent(question / dispute)
• C-11 — Search phase ended ≠ search program ended(question / dispute)

Analysis

MH370 is the Wave-1 principled unknown test.

The record supports different claims at different strengths:

A conventional article tends to compress those into a narrative route and then attach a vague "cause unknown." Counterpedia can expose the layers themselves:

observed signal → derived measurement → model assumption → probabilistic search area → search result → updated model

• direct radar/communications observations;
• satellite-derived geometric constraints;
• aircraft-performance constraints;
• model-dependent route probabilities;
• physical debris identification;
• negative search evidence;
• retrospective technical inferences;
• propositions investigators explicitly could not resolve.

Why not?

• "The crash site" is not directly observed.(semantic trap / refusal)
• A satellite arc is not a GPS position.(semantic trap / refusal)
• "Southern Indian Ocean" can be strongly supported while exact impact coordinates remain unknown.(semantic trap / refusal)
• "Likely manual control" does not identify the person at the controls.(semantic trap / refusal)
• Evidence from the captain's home simulator is not evidence that the simulator reproduced MH370's actual route.(semantic trap / refusal)
• Confirmed debris, almost-certain debris, and suspected debris are distinct evidentiary states.(semantic trap / refusal)
• A search area being eliminated at high confidence does not prove a specific alternative location; it supplies negative evidence to the next inference step.(semantic trap / refusal)
• "Search concluded" is temporally dangerous.(semantic trap / refusal)
• Malaysia led the Annex 13 safety investigation; Australia led much of the southern Indian Ocean search and recovery effort.(semantic trap / refusal)
• A safety-investigation conclusion that cause is unknown does not mean the entire record is unknowable.(semantic trap / refusal)

Temporal bounds

Core casualty/investigation corpus: March 2014–July 2018. Search/model corpus: 2014–2026, because later debris, sonar reanalysis, and renewed Ocean Infinity searches materially update where the aircraft is not known to be and which areas remain candidates.