Status: RESEARCH / PRE-CAPTURE ONLY
Subject: Disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 (2014)
Scope: source inventory, authority/posture, record-contradiction map, provisional five-claim matrix, capture hazards, reverse-source candidates, current-search posture
Explicit non-claims: This dossier creates no CaptureReceipt, SourceEdition, SRS receipt, custody, admission, final standing, article prose, or canonical Counterpedia identity.

A. SUBJECT / DISAMBIGUATION

Common name

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappearance

Exact event scope

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER registration 9M-MRO, operating flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014; the loss of routine communications and transponder-derived position reporting; radar and satellite-communications evidence used to reconstruct a probable post-diversion route; recovered debris; multinational surface and underwater search programs; model-dependent search-area revisions; and the Malaysian safety investigation's inability to determine the real cause without the main wreckage, flight data recorder (FDR), cockpit voice recorder (CVR), or additional decisive evidence.

This dossier is not a page about every theory proposed publicly about MH370.

Important identifiers / aliases

• Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 / MAS370

• Boeing 777-200ER

• registration 9M-MRO

• Malaysian investigation report MH370/01/2018

• ATSB investigation AE-2014-054

• 7th arc

• BTO — Burst Timing Offset

• BFO — Burst Frequency Offset

• SDU — Satellite Data Unit

• SATCOM / Inmarsat signalling data

• southern Indian Ocean search

• first principles review

• flaperon / right outboard flap / left outboard flap

• Ocean Infinity MH370 search

• ATSB / Geoscience Australia / CSIRO drift modelling

Naming / semantic traps

1. "The crash site" is not directly observed. Search areas are model-derived probability regions, not equivalent to a fixed known accident location.

2. A satellite arc is not a GPS position. BTO constrains distance from a satellite to a ring/arc; BFO constrains relative motion under assumptions and aircraft-performance limits.

3. "Southern Indian Ocean" can be strongly supported while exact impact coordinates remain unknown.

4. "Likely manual control" does not identify the person at the controls.

5. Evidence from the captain's home simulator is not evidence that the simulator reproduced MH370's actual route.

6. Confirmed debris, almost-certain debris, and suspected debris are distinct evidentiary states.

7. **A search area being eliminated at high confidence does not prove a specific alternative location; it supplies negative evidence to the next inference step.

8. "Search concluded" is temporally dangerous. One operational phase may end while a later contract/search phase remains active or scheduled.

9. Malaysia led the Annex 13 safety investigation; Australia led much of the southern Indian Ocean search and recovery effort. Those authority roles must not be collapsed.

10. A safety-investigation conclusion that cause is unknown does not mean the entire record is unknowable. Many route, debris, communications, and search-exclusion propositions are strongly evidenced.

Temporal bounds

Core casualty/investigation corpus: March 2014–July 2018.
Search/model corpus: 2014–2026, because later debris, sonar reanalysis, and renewed Ocean Infinity searches materially update where the aircraft is not known to be and which areas remain candidates.

Why this is fertile for Counterpedia

MH370 is the Wave-1 principled unknown test.

The record supports different claims at different strengths:

• direct radar/communications observations;

• satellite-derived geometric constraints;

• aircraft-performance constraints;

• model-dependent route probabilities;

• physical debris identification;

• negative search evidence;

• retrospective technical inferences;

• propositions investigators explicitly could not resolve.

A conventional article tends to compress those into a narrative route and then attach a vague "cause unknown." Counterpedia can expose the layers themselves:

observed signal
→ derived measurement
→ model assumption
→ probabilistic search area
→ search result
→ updated model

while preserving:

who acted?
why?
exact impact point?

as genuinely unresolved.

B. SOURCE INVENTORY

MH-S01 — Malaysian Safety Investigation Report

Exact title: SAFETY INVESTIGATION REPORT — Malaysia Airlines Boeing B777-200ER (9M-MRO), 08 March 2014
Issuer: Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370
Report: MH370/01/2018
Issued: 2018-07-02
Exact locator:
https://www.mot.gov.my/en/MH370%20Investigation%20Report/01-Report/MH370SafetyInvestigationReport.pdf

Format: PDF, 495 pages
Authority / posture: Official Malaysian Annex 13 safety-investigation report. Malaysia was the state of registry/operator and led the Annex 13 investigation. It is a safety investigation, not a criminal adjudication.

May support

• event chronology;

• communications/radar reconstruction;

• aircraft/crew history;

• home-simulator examination;

• manual-control inferences;

• systems analysis;

• debris status;

• explicit limits of available evidence;

• final conclusion that the real cause could not be determined.

Key institutional qualifications

• change in flight path likely resulted from manual inputs;

• turn-back after IGARI was likely under manual control;

• investigators could not determine who made the inputs or why;

• system malfunction could not be conclusively eliminated;

• possibility of third-party intervention could not be excluded;

• without main wreckage/FDR/CVR/other decisive evidence, team could not determine real cause.

Captureability: HIGH
Hazards: large PDF; preserve exact pages/figures; appendices are separate artifacts and current portal navigation is dynamic.
Priority: P0

MH-S02 — Malaysian Ministry of Transport MH370 investigation archive

Exact source surface: MH370 Safety Investigation Report / Ministry of Transport MH370 investigation archive
Issuer: Ministry of Transport Malaysia
Current report landing/archive locator:
https://www.mot.gov.my/en/aviation/reports/mh370

Authority / posture: official publication/provenance surface for report and investigation materials.

May support

• document lineage/provenance;

• official report publication;

• discovery of appendices and related Malaysian materials.

Captureability: MEDIUM
Hazards

• current interface can be JavaScript/dynamic;

• some historical mh370.mot.gov.my paths are obsolete;

• every appendix used should be resolved to its exact child object;

• never replace missing origin material with a mirror without labelling the mirror.

Priority: P1

MH-S03 — ATSB Operational Search for MH370 — Final Report

Exact title: The Operational Search for MH370
Issuer: Australian Transport Safety Bureau
Released: 2017-10-03
Investigation: AE-2014-054
Exact official report locator:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/5773565/operational-search-for-mh370_final_3oct2017.pdf

Official investigation surface:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/investigations/ae-2014-054

Format: large PDF, about 39.75 MB
Authority / posture: official Australian search report. Australia accepted lead responsibility for coordinating the search and recovery effort in the southern Indian Ocean while Malaysia retained Annex 13 investigative responsibility.

May support

• search chronology;

• 120,000 km² high-resolution underwater search;

• radar/SATCOM basis for southern search;

• search-area definition;

• areas eliminated;

• limitations of the data used for tracking;

• conclusion that reasons for loss cannot be established with certainty until aircraft is located.

Cannot establish

• accident cause;

• exact crash point merely because a search region was prioritized.

Captureability: HIGH but large
Hazards: size; many maps/figures; passage extraction alone is insufficient.
Priority: P0

MH-S04 — ATSB First Principles Review

Exact title: MH370 — First Principles Review
Issuer: ATSB with international search experts
Review meeting: 2016
Official child object: ae2014054_final-first-principles-report.pdf on ATSB investigation AE-2014-054
Official investigation surface:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/investigations/ae-2014-054

Format: PDF, ~2.3 MB
Authority / posture: expert search-area reassessment, not accident-cause determination.

May support

• combined treatment of SATCOM assumptions, end-of-flight simulations, hydroacoustics, debris/drift evidence;

• conclusion that a region near the 7th arc around 33°–36°S was the highest-probability unsearched area under then-current analysis;

• high-confidence elimination of previously searched area.

Critical qualification Its confidence language is conditional on the analysis and evidence then available. A "highest probability" region is not an observed crash coordinate.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P0

MH-S05 — ATSB MH370 Search and Debris Examination Update

Exact title: MH370 — Search and debris examination update
Issuer: ATSB
Investigation: AE-2014-054
Official child filename: ae-2014-054_mh370-search-and-debris-update_aug2017.pdf
Official investigation surface:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/investigations/ae-2014-054

Format: PDF, ~2.45 MB
Authority / posture: official technical/search update.

May support

• BFO-based end-of-flight descent-rate range;

• end-of-flight simulation limits;

• debris/flap analysis;

• reduction in likelihood of flap-deployed/controlled-ditch scenarios;

• search-width assumptions.

Critical qualification ATSB explicitly cautions that simulations do not represent every possible scenario or exact aircraft response. Derived descent-rate ranges are not directly measured vertical speed.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P0

MH-S06 — ATSB BTO characteristics fact sheet

Exact title: MH370 — Burst Timing Offset (BTO) characteristics
Issuer: ATSB
Exact locator:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/educational-fact-sheet/2022/aviation/mh370-burst-timing-offset-bto-characteristics

Format: HTML
Authority / posture: official technical explainer of the SATCOM timing observable used in search analysis.

May support

• BTO is round-trip timing information used to construct range rings/arcs;

• validation accuracy on the order of ±10 km for line-of-position;

• data system was not designed as an aircraft-positioning system;

• each limited sample had to be individually analysed.

Cannot support

• an exact longitude/latitude from one BTO point.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1

MH-S07 — ATSB SATCOM signalling unit logs

Exact title: MH370 — Update: Signalling Unit Logs
Issuer: ATSB
Exact locator:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/educational-fact-sheet/2022/aviation/mh370-update-signalling-unit-logs

Format: official ATSB publication/data explainer
Authority / posture: publication of signalling data originally released by Malaysia, with ATSB technical formatting/context.

Important source-version note The logs/publication were amended on 2017-03-30 to correct formatting errors.

May support

• exact SATCOM message/signalling chronology;

• raw-data provenance beneath BTO/BFO analysis;

• source-edition drift.

Cannot establish

• route/cause without modelling.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P0 as a reverse-source object beneath multiple analyses.

MH-S08 — CSIRO drift analysis Part I

Exact source family: The search for MH370 and ocean surface drift — Part I
Issuer: CSIRO, published through ATSB
Official series hub:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/csiro-mh370-drift-reports

Format: PDF
Authority / posture: scientific drift-model analysis supporting search prioritization; model-dependent inference.

May support

• debris-arrival/non-arrival timing constraints;

• Part I emphasis on roughly 36°–32°S and especially around 35°S under that analysis.

Cannot establish

• exact impact point.

Captureability: HIGH through official ATSB/CSIRO publication surface
Priority: P0

MH-S09 — CSIRO drift analysis Part II / real flaperon tests

Exact source family: The search for MH370 and ocean surface drift — Part II
Issuer: CSIRO / ATSB
Series hub:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/csiro-mh370-drift-reports

Authority / posture: scientific model update incorporating measured drift behaviour of a Boeing 777 flaperon replica/actual-flaperon-related testing.

May support

• later drift testing increased confidence in the region around 35°S;

• refinement/validation of drift assumptions.

Critical qualification Even the researchers' confidence language stops short of certainty.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1

MH-S10 — CSIRO drift analysis Part III / satellite imagery

Issuer: CSIRO / Geoscience Australia / ATSB publication stream
Series hub:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/csiro-mh370-drift-reports

Authority / posture: model-dependent backtracking and imagery analysis.

May support

• potential debris objects in 2014 satellite imagery;

• backtracking consistency with candidate impact regions.

Cannot support

• that the objects were MH370 debris; image resolution was insufficient for identification.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P2

MH-S11 — CSIRO drift analysis Part IV

Issuer: CSIRO / ATSB
Series hub:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/csiro-mh370-drift-reports

Authority / posture: later scientific reassessment incorporating initial surface-search coverage.

May support

• which candidate source regions were more/less consistent with observed debris and historical surface-search negative evidence.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1

MH-S12 — ATSB debris examination reports 1–5

Issuer: ATSB / participating technical investigators
Investigation surface:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/investigations/ae-2014-054

Document family

• Debris Examination Report 1 — published 2016-04-19; amended 2017-08-17

• Report 2 — published 2016-05-12; amended 2016-05-24 and 2017-08-17

• Report 3 — published 2016-09-15; amended 2017-08-17

• Report 4 — published 2016-09-22

• Report 5 — published 2016-10-07; amended 2017-08-17

Authority / posture: official technical examination of recovered debris.

May support

• exact identification confidence;

• unique manufacturing/linkage evidence;

• flap/flaperon condition;

• physical evidence constraining end-of-flight scenarios.

Important evidence grades

• the Réunion flaperon was confirmed as from 9M-MRO by French authorities;

• sections of flap were uniquely linked through manufacturing records;

• some other items were classified at lower levels such as "almost certainly."

Counterpedia rule Do not flatten: confirmed
uniquely linked
almost certainly
suspected

into one generic "MH370 debris" label.

Captureability: HIGH
Hazards: amended editions; each report/edition must be an exact artifact.
Priority: P0

MH-S13 — ATSB / Geoscience Australia 2022 sonar-data review

Exact title: MH370 data review
Issuer: ATSB / Geoscience Australia
Exact locator:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-data-review

Date: 2022
Format: HTML + review result
Authority / posture: official retrospective review of selected sonar imagery from the original search.

May support

• conclusion that it was highly unlikely an MH370 debris field existed within the specific reviewed portions of the original search data.

Cannot support

• a positive location elsewhere.

Counterpedia value Pure negative evidence: searched/reviewed area → aircraft highly unlikely there without inventing: therefore aircraft must be at X.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1

MH-S14 — ATSB aircraft-debris and drift modelling fact sheet

Exact title: MH370 — aircraft debris and drift modelling
Issuer: ATSB
Exact locator:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/educational-fact-sheet/2022/aviation/mh370-aircraft-debris-and-drift-modelling

Format: HTML
Authority / posture: official explanation of modelling history.

Important methodological correction ATSB describes an error in transferring Bureau of Meteorology wind data into an early drift model. The error did not affect the surface search but mattered for later landfall predictions and was corrected in subsequent work.

Counterpedia value An ideal example that a modelling error:

• can be real,

• can have bounded consequences,

• and does not automatically invalidate every result produced by the model family.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1

MH-S15 — Ocean Infinity March 2026 search-phase conclusion

Exact title: Conclusion of the Search for Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370
Issuer: Ocean Infinity
Date: 2026-03-08
Exact locator:
https://oceaninfinity.com/news/conclusion-of-the-search-for-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370/

Format: HTML
Authority / posture: first-party search-contractor operational statement; not an Annex 13 investigation finding.

May support

• latest phase departed search area on 2026-01-23;

• contractor reported no aircraft found in that phase;

• Ocean Infinity stated that across its search activity since 2018 it had spent 151 days at sea and mapped/searched >140,000 km² of seabed.

Cannot support

• that the entire MH370 search program permanently ended;

• accident cause.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1 / time-sensitive

MH-S16 — Malaysian government-relayed 2026 search extension

Exact source surface: Malaysian public broadcaster RTM report on Cabinet extension of Ocean Infinity MH370 agreement
Issuer: Radio Televisyen Malaysia / Berita RTM, relaying Malaysian Transport Ministry/government announcement
Date: 2026-06-29
Exact locator:
https://berita.rtm.gov.my/nasional/senarai-berita-nasional/senarai-artikel/cabinet-extends-mh370-search-agreement-with-ocean-infinity

Authority / posture: government institutional relay of current policy/contract status; stronger source should be substituted if the signed MOT agreement/official ministry release is captured.

May support as of dossier date

• extension period stated as 2026-07-01 through 2027-06-30;

• no-find-no-fee arrangement;

• remaining search area stated as 7,428.54 km²;

• operations expected to be rescheduled in the safer November–April weather window.

Critical qualification This source is current-status evidence, not accident-investigation authority.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P1 / recapture at publication

MH-S17 — ICAO global aircraft tracking response

Exact source surface: Aircraft Tracking
Issuer: International Civil Aviation Organization
Exact locator:
https://www.icao.int/operational-safety/aircrafttracking

Authority / posture: international aviation safety-policy background.

May support

• MH370 disappearance helped drive ICAO/global work on improved aircraft tracking and the GADSS concept.

Cannot support

• accident cause or location.

Captureability: HIGH
Priority: P2

MH-S18 — Wikipedia comparison surface — OPTIONAL

Title: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Role: familiar secondary comparison surface only
Locator: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370

Capture rule: pin exact oldid if used in a demo.
Authority / posture: secondary collaborative narrative; no automatic Counterpedia authority.
Priority: OPTIONAL

C. RECORD-CONTRADICTION / QUALIFICATION MAP

C-1 — Manual control likely ≠ named-pilot intent established

The Malaysian report supports a bounded inference:

• simulator reconstruction and route geometry made the turn-back after IGARI likely under manual control;

• the broader change in flight path likely resulted from manual inputs.

But the same report says:

• investigators could not establish who made those inputs;

• they could not determine whether the aircraft was flown by someone other than the assigned pilots;

• no recent crew financial/medical/behavioral anomaly established a motive;

• system malfunction could not be conclusively eliminated;

• third-party intervention could not be excluded;

• real cause could not be determined.

Counterpedia rule Never collapse:

manual input likely

into:

Captain Zaharie intentionally hijacked the aircraft

without a separate evidence bridge.

C-2 — Home simulator evidence exists ≠ MH370 route rehearsal established

The Malaysian investigation recovered thousands of coordinates from the captain's home simulator. Seven manually programmed waypoints could be connected into a path from the Kuala Lumpur region through the Andaman Sea toward the southern Indian Ocean.

But the report also records:

• the Royal Malaysia Police could not determine whether those waypoints came from one or multiple simulator files;

• no simulator data showed that a route similar to MH370's route had actually been flown;

• police concluded there were no unusual activities beyond game-related flight simulations.

Counterpedia value The exact same evidence supports:

"southern-Indian-Ocean-related waypoints were present"

while refusing:

"the pilot rehearsed the MH370 murder-suicide route."

C-3 — Southern Indian Ocean strongly inferred ≠ exact crash site known

Radar, SATCOM metadata, aircraft-performance analysis, BTO/BFO modelling, debris drift, and physical debris collectively make a southern Indian Ocean end point the dominant official search hypothesis.

But:

• BTO yields range rings/arcs, not direct coordinates;

• BFO constrains possible relative motion under assumptions;

• many route candidates exist;

• end-of-flight simulations have stated limitations;

• drift models have uncertainty;

• major search areas have produced no wreckage.

Therefore the page should distinguish:

• broad region inference

from

• probabilistic search zone

from

• exact impact coordinate.

C-4 — Search-area changes are model updates, not necessarily factual contradiction

Search areas changed as:

• SATCOM analysis matured;

• aircraft performance assumptions were reviewed;

• debris was recovered;

• flaperon drift was tested;

• satellite imagery was reconsidered;

• negative search results eliminated earlier regions;

• sonar data were re-reviewed.

This should not be rendered as:

"Investigators kept changing their story."

A better graph is: evidence state E1 → model M1 → search area A1 → negative search then evidence state E2 → model M2 → search area A2.

The model version and evidence basis are part of the proposition.

C-5 — High-confidence search exclusion ≠ positive location elsewhere

ATSB reports high confidence that the large area searched through 2017 did not contain the aircraft. Geoscience Australia's 2022 sonar re-review further reduced concern that a debris field had been missed in specific reviewed data.

Those are strong negative propositions.

They do not alone prove:

"therefore MH370 is at coordinate X."

Negative evidence narrows; it does not magically localize.

C-6 — BFO/end-of-flight evidence reduces controlled-ditching scenarios ≠ categorical proof

ATSB's end-of-flight work found the final SATCOM BFO observations consistent with high/increasing rates of descent, and physical flap evidence made a flap-deployed controlled ditching less likely.

But ATSB explicitly cautions that simulations do not model all possible scenarios or exact aircraft behavior.

So:

"the evidence reduced the likelihood of a controlled flap-down ditching"

is stronger than:

"ATSB proved nobody was controlling the aircraft at impact."

The second requires a further inferential step the source does not warrant.

C-7 — Debris identification has graded confidence

The official corpus contains multiple evidentiary classes:

• flaperon confirmed from 9M-MRO;

• flap sections uniquely linked through manufacturing records;

• other debris assessed "almost certainly" from MH370;

• other suspected debris with lower confidence.

Counterpedia should expose the classification attached to each physical item.

A debris gallery should never use one generic green checkmark.

C-8 — Early drift-model error has bounded consequences

ATSB later disclosed/corrected an error in transferring wind data into an early drift model.

The error:

• did not affect the initial surface search;

• did affect later landfall-prediction modelling;

• was corrected.

This is a strong model-integrity demonstration:

a real method/data-processing error can invalidate one use of a model without invalidating unrelated outputs.

C-9 — "Prospective areas exhausted based on analysis to date" vs later renewed searches

The 2016 First Principles Review described a roughly 25,000 km² region as the highest-probability remaining area under the evidence then available and said searching it would exhaust prospective areas based on that analysis.

Later:

• Ocean Infinity conducted a 2018 search;

• another phase ran through January 2026 without locating the aircraft;

• Malaysia extended the search arrangement into 2027.

This is not necessarily institutional contradiction.

The phrase:

"based on all analysis to date"

is itself part of the epistemic object.

New models, data, search technology, and negative search evidence can legitimately reopen a search hypothesis.

C-10 — Cause unknown ≠ evidence absent

The Malaysian investigation's final inability to determine the real cause coexists with many nontrivial findings:

• route changes;

• likely manual inputs;

• absence of certain detected crew anomalies;

• no identified plausible systems failure explaining the full sequence;

• incomplete ability to exclude system failure or third-party intervention;

• confirmed physical debris;

• model-derived southern search region.

Counterpedia should distinguish: UNKNOWN CAUSE from NO KNOWLEDGE.

C-11 — Search phase ended ≠ search program ended

Ocean Infinity's March 8, 2026 statement says its latest phase had left the search area without locating the aircraft.

A later June 29, 2026 Malaysian government-relayed report says the agreement was extended through June 30, 2027 with future operations expected in the safer November–April season.

Thus a page published from only the March source would be temporally stale if it claimed:

"The latest MH370 search is over."

This is a live source-supersession example.

D. FIVE-CLAIM DEMONSTRATION MATRIX — PROVISIONAL ONLY

C1 — Observable / concrete event fact

Provisional wording

After MH370's last routine voice communication near the IGARI waypoint in the early hours of March 8, 2014, its transponder-derived position reporting ceased; subsequent military-radar and satellite-communications evidence indicated that the aircraft turned back across the Malay Peninsula and remained airborne for several more hours.

Candidate sources

• MH-S01 Malaysian report

• MH-S03 ATSB operational search report

• MH-S07 SATCOM signalling logs

Can establish

• sequence of communications/radar observations;

• cessation of normal position reporting;

• continued post-turnback flight evidence;

• continued SATCOM signalling.

Cannot establish

• exact continuous route;

• pilot intent;

• exact final coordinates.

Likely posture

• direct/derived institutional event chronology.

Qualification Do not write "there were no transmissions after 01:21" without distinguishing normal operational transmissions from later automatic SATCOM handshakes/signalling.

Strengthening Bind individual messages/radar observations to exact Malaysian appendices and SATCOM log artifacts.

C2 — Measurement / model-structure fact

Provisional wording

MH370's satellite BTO observations constrained the aircraft to distance rings/arcs rather than exact positions, while BFO observations constrained relative motion; route reconstruction therefore required additional assumptions about aircraft speed, heading, performance, satellite behavior, and end-of-flight state.

Candidate sources

• MH-S06 BTO fact sheet

• MH-S07 signalling logs

• MH-S03/MH-S04/MH-S05 ATSB analyses

Can establish

• measurement semantics;

• why the 7th arc is a geometric constraint, not a known point;

• why multiple routes can satisfy limited observations.

Cannot establish

• a unique route solely from BTO/BFO.

Likely posture

• technical measurement fact + model methodology.

Refusal branch

"Inmarsat tracked MH370 to exact coordinates."

Not supported.

Strengthening No stronger source can turn the historical BTO data into GPS; a more exact location would require independent evidence such as wreckage/FDR/CVR or another direct observation.

C3 — Action / route-change inference

Provisional wording

The Malaysian safety investigation concluded that MH370's turn-back after IGARI was likely made under manual control and that the subsequent changes in flight path were difficult to attribute to anomalous system issues alone; it could not determine who made the manual inputs or why.

Candidate sources

• MH-S01

Can establish

• the team's bounded manual-control inference;

• the explicit uncertainty about actor and motive.

Cannot establish

• that Captain Zaharie made the inputs;

• intentional murder-suicide;

• third-party exclusion.

Likely posture

• attributed institutional technical inference.

Qualification Keep the uncertainty clause in the same claim object or as a mandatory qualification edge. It is not optional footnote material.

C4 — Carefully bounded explanatory / search proposition

Provisional wording

ATSB and its technical partners used SATCOM analysis, aircraft performance, end-of-flight modelling, recovered debris, and ocean-drift analysis to prioritize areas near the 7th arc in the southern Indian Ocean; the resulting search regions were probabilistic products of those models, not directly observed impact coordinates.

Candidate sources

• MH-S03

• MH-S04

• MH-S05

• MH-S08–S11

• MH-S12

Can establish

• institutional search rationale;

• evidence classes feeding location models;

• highest-probability regions under particular analysis versions.

Cannot establish

• exact loss location;

• causal mechanism;

• that one unsearched point is "the crash site."

Likely posture

• attributed model/search inference.

Qualification Every numerical search box should carry source date/model version.

Strengthening Actual wreckage localization would convert a model-derived location claim into an observed/recovered location claim.

C5 — Contested / commonly compressed proposition

Popular formulation

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah deliberately hijacked MH370 and crashed it in the southern Indian Ocean in a murder-suicide.

Located record can support

• turn-back likely occurred under manual control;

• broader flight-path change likely involved manual inputs;

• seven manually programmed waypoints recovered from the captain's home simulator could be connected into a route extending toward the southern Indian Ocean;

• investigators found no identified systems failure that plausibly explained the entire observed sequence;

• southern Indian Ocean search hypothesis is strongly supported by SATCOM/debris/search analysis.

Located record does NOT establish

• who made the manual inputs;

• that the simulator waypoints represented one flown route;

• that the captain rehearsed MH370's actual route;

• motive;

• suicide intent;

• murder intent;

• exact end-of-flight control state;

• definitive exclusion of system failure or third-party intervention.

Relevant contrary/limiting evidence

• police analysis could not determine whether the seven simulator waypoints came from one or multiple files;

• no simulator data showed a route similar to MH370's route had been flown;

• investigators found no recent crew financial/medical/behavioral anomalies establishing such a motive;

• system malfunction could not be conclusively eliminated;

• third-party intervention could not be excluded;

• Malaysian team ultimately said it could not determine the real cause.

Likely posture

• refusal / major scope reduction.

Reopening condition Authenticated evidence materially tying the intentional diversion and end-of-flight to the named actor, such as:

1. recovery of FDR/CVR/main wreckage revealing control inputs or cockpit events;

2. authenticated cockpit/communications/security evidence identifying the actor;

3. contemporaneous planning evidence specifically linked to MH370;

4. evidence sufficient to establish intent rather than merely manual operation.

A newly discovered simulator coordinate alone would not be enough unless it bridges identity, route, chronology, and intent.

E. BEST "WHY NOT?" SPECIMEN

Strong formulation

"The pilot practiced the route on his home simulator and then deliberately crashed MH370."

Why the located record does not justify it

The simulator evidence is real.

The Malaysian report records:

• thousands of coordinates on the home simulator;

• seven manually programmed waypoints that can be connected from the Kuala Lumpur region through the Andaman Sea toward the southern Indian Ocean.

But the same source also records:

• police could not establish whether they came from one simulator file/flight;

• no data showed that a route similar to MH370 was flown on the simulator;

• no unusual activity was found beyond game-related simulation use.

Separately, the flight investigation says the turn-back was likely manual.

Those two facts do not contain the missing causal identity edge:

simulator waypoints

• manual aircraft turn

does not logically become:

Captain Zaharie rehearsed and executed a murder-suicide.

Reopening condition

A defensible promotion requires authenticated evidence connecting:

• the simulator material to a specific rehearsed MH370-like route,

• the actor to the aircraft's actual manual inputs,

• and the actor's intent to the disappearance/end-of-flight.

Without that bridge, the strongest correct state is NOT ESTABLISHED.

F. SOURCE-PAGE / REVERSE-WIKIPEDIA CANDIDATES

1. MH-S01 — Malaysian Safety Investigation Report

Why it is ideal

This report contains both positive findings and explicit epistemic limits.

Reverse traversal can show:

turn-back likely manual
→ exact analysis
→ radar/simulator evidence
→ claims it supports

and simultaneously:

real cause undetermined
→ missing main wreckage/FDR/CVR
→ system failure not conclusively excluded
→ third-party intervention not excluded
→ claims it refuses.

This is a source that demonstrates how an official report can be authoritative about uncertainty.

2. MH-S07 + MH-S06 — SATCOM logs and BTO/BFO measurement semantics

Why they are ideal

The same sparse signalling observations generated:

• arcs;

• route candidates;

• search zones;

• end-of-flight analyses;

• later reanalyses.

Reverse traversal:

raw signalling observation
→ BTO/BFO derived quantity
→ assumptions
→ flight-path model
→ search-area edition
→ negative search result
→ later model/search area.

This is perhaps the strongest source-to-many-models specimen in the Demo Corpus Twelve.

3. MH-S12 — debris examination reports / flaperon

Why it is ideal

One physical object can traverse:

recovered object
→ identification evidence
→ confidence class
→ aircraft association
→ flap-position inference
→ end-of-flight scenario constraint
→ drift experiment
→ search-area weighting.

Counterpedia can show exactly where the chain changes from physical observation to inference.

4. MH-S08–S11 — CSIRO drift-report family

Why it is ideal

This is a model lineage, not one timeless source.

The Source Page family can expose:

• model assumptions;

• data inputs;

• early limitations/errors;

• recovered-debris arrival data;

• real-flaperon testing;

• later satellite imagery;

• confidence changes;

• which search zones each edition supported.

That is reverse-Wikipedia at research-grade depth.

G. 30–60 SECOND DEMO MOMENT

Open MH370.

Do not begin with a theory.

Show four cards:

OBSERVED

• routine communications ceased;

• radar observed a turn-back / westward movement;

• SATCOM handshakes continued;

• physical debris was later recovered and some pieces linked to 9M-MRO.

DERIVED

• BTO → distance arcs;

• BFO → relative-motion constraints.

MODELLED

• southern Indian Ocean route families;

• 7th-arc high-probability search zones;

• debris-drift probability regions;

• end-of-flight descent scenarios.

UNKNOWN

• exact impact point;

• who made the manual inputs;

• motive;

• exact end-of-flight control state;

• real cause.

Then click:

"But didn't the captain practice the route?"

Counterpedia opens the Malaysian report's simulator section:

YES

• seven manually programmed southern-Indian-Ocean-related waypoints existed.

NO

• investigators could not show they belonged to one flown route;

• no simulator data showed a route similar to MH370 was actually flown;

• that evidence does not identify the actor or motive behind MH370's real flight.

Then reveal:

A model can be strong enough to search thousands of square kilometres without being strong enough to name a perpetrator or an exact crash coordinate.

That is the MH370 product moment.

H. CAPTURE PRIORITY

P0 — essential

1. MH-S01 Malaysian Safety Investigation Report

2. exact Malaysian appendices used for radar/SATCOM/simulator claims

3. MH-S03 ATSB Operational Search Final Report

4. MH-S04 First Principles Review

5. MH-S05 Search and Debris Examination Update

6. MH-S07 SATCOM signalling logs / amended publication

7. MH-S08 CSIRO drift Part I

8. MH-S12 exact debris examination reports / relevant editions

P1 — important contradiction / model lineage

1. MH-S06 BTO characteristics

2. MH-S09 CSIRO drift Part II

3. MH-S11 CSIRO drift Part IV

4. MH-S13 2022 sonar-data review

5. MH-S14 debris/drift model error/correction explainer

6. MH-S15 Ocean Infinity March 2026 phase status

7. MH-S16 Malaysian government-relayed 2026 extension — recapture when status matters

P2

1. MH-S10 satellite imagery / drift Part III

2. MH-S17 ICAO aircraft-tracking policy consequence

3. hydroacoustic and other specialist analyses if a claim requires them

OPTIONAL

1. MH-S18 Wikipedia comparison edition pinned by oldid

I. INTEGRITY FLAGS

1. Unknown cause must remain a positive record state

The Malaysian team's final statement that it could not determine the real cause is not an embarrassment to fill with a theory.

It is an admissible epistemic outcome.

2. Malaysian investigation authority and ATSB search authority differ

Malaysia led the Annex 13 safety investigation. Australia led much of the southern Indian Ocean search/recovery effort and supported the Malaysian investigation.

Do not represent ATSB search modelling as the Malaysian investigation's final causal finding.

3. BTO/BFO are not position fixes

Every UI representation should label:

• measured/recorded signalling field;

• derived quantity;

• model assumptions;

• resulting arc/route probability.

4. Search boxes are time- and model-scoped

A region described as "highest probability" in 2016 is:

highest probability under that evidence/model state.

Do not preserve the adjective while deleting its temporal scope.

5. Negative searches are not positive localization

"No wreckage found in A" can eliminate A at some confidence. It does not establish B without further evidence.

6. Simulator evidence is especially vulnerable to narrative laundering

Preserve all qualifiers:

• waypoint count;

• storage context;

• inability to show one continuous simulator flight;

• inability to show an MH370-like flown route.

7. "Likely manual" is not actor identity

The actor edge remains unresolved.

8. "No plausible system failure identified" is not "system failure impossible"

The Malaysian report explicitly keeps inability-to-exclude language.

9. "Third-party intervention cannot be excluded" is not evidence that third-party intervention occurred

An exclusion statement defines residual uncertainty; it is not positive support for a theory.

10. Debris confidence labels must travel with each object

Confirmed / uniquely linked / almost certainly / suspected are not interchangeable.

11. Debris report editions changed

Several ATSB debris reports were amended in August 2017. Capture all relevant editions instead of treating a document title as immutable content identity.

12. ATSB signalling-log publication was amended

Formatting errors were corrected March 30, 2017. The old/new bytes are a useful SourceEdition test.

13. ATSB 2015 search-area report also has version drift

ATSB's December 2015 search-area report was updated December 10 to clarify that a referenced "power loss" concerned the SDU. Capture the exact edition if that proposition is used.

14. Drift-model error must be bounded

The historical wind-data transfer error affected landfall-prediction modelling, not the initial surface-search conduct. Never inflate a bounded correction into "the whole search model was wrong."

15. Main wreckage still has not been located as of 2026-08-09

Current search status is time-sensitive. Recapture before publication.

16. Ocean Infinity's March 2026 "conclusion" describes an operational phase

A later Malaysian report says the agreement was extended into 2027. Do not infer permanent termination of the search from the contractor's March phase-completion statement.

17. Current 2026–27 search agreement needs a stronger primary contract/Ministry artifact if available

The currently located June 2026 source is a Malaysian government broadcaster relaying the government's position. Before using exact contract terms for governed publication, capture a Transport Ministry/Cabinet document or signed agreement if obtainable.

18. Historical portal/URL drift is significant

Old Malaysian MH370 portals and appendix locators have changed. A mirror or archive can preserve content but must remain a distinct provenance/observation context.

19. Maps are especially dangerous

A map dot can visually overclaim more than prose.

Use different symbology for:

• radar position;

• satellite arc;

• model probability field;

• searched area;

• debris recovery location;

• hypothetical route.

Never show a single "MH370 crash site" pin unless wreckage localization makes that proposition admissible.

J. MH370 CAPTURE DISPATCH SHAPE

For MH370-CAP1, capture in this order:

1. MH-S01 Malaysian Safety Investigation Report exact PDF

2. resolve/capture the exact Malaysian appendices for:

   • communications chronology

   • military/civil radar

   • SATCOM

   • simulator/RMP evidence

3. MH-S07 signalling logs and identify prior/current editions

4. MH-S06 BTO semantics page

5. MH-S03 ATSB Operational Search Final Report

6. MH-S04 First Principles Review

7. MH-S05 Search and Debris Examination Update

8. MH-S12 each relied-on debris examination report, including amended editions

9. MH-S08 CSIRO Part I

10. MH-S09 Part II

11. MH-S11 Part IV

12. MH-S14 model-correction explainer

13. MH-S13 2022 sonar-data review

14. MH-S15 Ocean Infinity March 2026 statement

15. resolve a Malaysian Transport Ministry/Cabinet primary source for the 2026–27 search extension; until then retain MH-S16 with its government-relay posture

16. optional MH-S10 / MH-S17 depth sources

CAP1 lane output remains intentionally boring:

• requested locator;

• final locator;

• HTTP result;

• media type;

• exact bytes/digest;

• capture observation;

• source-owned dates;

• document edition/amendment lineage;

• child-report relationships;

• extraction status;

• figure/map/table anchoring requirements;

• captured / refused / failed;

• no standing;

• no article prose.

K. PROVISIONAL MH370 THESIS FOR REVIEW

MH370 should not be demoed as:

"Counterpedia tells you what happened to MH370."

That would contradict the record.

The much stronger product thesis is:

Counterpedia can show exactly how far the record lets us go before inference becomes theory.

The page can confidently contain:

DIRECT / STRONGLY GROUNDED

• aircraft identity and departure;

• communications/radar sequence;

• SATCOM observations;

• debris identifications;

• searched regions and negative results.

DERIVED

• BTO arcs;

• BFO motion constraints.

MODEL-DEPENDENT

• southern route families;

• high-probability impact/search zones;

• drift backtracking;

• end-of-flight scenarios.

INSTITUTIONAL INFERENCE

• turn-back likely manual;

• path changes difficult to explain by anomalous systems alone.

NOT ESTABLISHED

• actor;

• motive;

• exact impact point;

• exact end-of-flight control state;

• real cause.

The critical Counterpedia sentence is:

A record can strongly constrain reality without resolving it.

MH370 therefore exercises:

• confidence levels;

• model-dependent inference;

• negative search evidence;

• source/method versioning;

• calibrated debris identification;

• temporal search-state truth;

• and, above all, a legitimate UNKNOWN / NOT ESTABLISHED state that must not be filled merely because a compelling theory exists.

That makes MH370 the cleanest Wave-1 proof that Counterpedia is not a machine for manufacturing certainty.